Presedntial Polls Show Democratic and Republican Candidates Neck in Neck in Swing States Virginia and Ohio
Ohio and Virginia are swing states that will play a strong part in the upcoming senatorial and presidential elections. Ohio has a long history of switching parties. In 2008 and 1996 the vote was for a democratic president. In 2000 and 2004 Ohio voters selected George Bush. Today Ohio voters have senatorial and presidential candidates running neck and neck according to recent polls.
On September 7th and 8th Gravis Marketing presidential polls showed a 4 percent increase for Obama in Ohio. Their September 5th, poll showed Obama/Romney at 44% to 47% while on September 9, 2012, Public Policy showed Obama leading 50% to 40% in Ohio. Gravis Marketing senate polls on September 7/8 showed Sherrod Brown, the Democratic senate candidate, increasing in popularity.
On September 8-9, a Gravis Marketing Virginia poll showed Romney leading Obama by 49% to 47%. The same poll showed republican candidate George Allen leading the senatorial poll with 47% support against Democrat Tim Kane at 42%. Check with gravismarketing.blogspot.com for a full analysis and cross-tabs.
According to Gallop.com people have ambiguous feelings about polls. While most people feel that polls are good at predicting election results, they feel skeptical about the science behind the polls, which typically have 1,500 to 2,000 participants. Americans have difficulty believing that such a small sample size can realistically represent a preference of Americans in general.
With senatorial races and presidential races so close according to polls, it’s interesting to speculate on what events or factors can sway the outcome towards a particular candidate. Some of these factors might be the growing number of Latino voters, changes in employment statistics, voter turnout and voter id laws. 2012 is the first year in which the number of Latinos and African Americans has exceeded the number of non-Hispanic white voters. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a 2012 CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision will be released on September 27, 2012. Clearly if these figures look good, they will favor the Democrats, and if they look bad, voters will be thirsting for change. Energizing those voters who feel like their vote doesn’t count could sway the election towards the most persuasive party. Voter id legislation can restrict voting to exclude the poor and the marginal. According to voxxi.com, voter id regulations adversely affect the ability of old people, poor people, youth, Latinos and African Americans to vote. These regulations are becoming increasingly widespread.
Michael Gerson of the Washington Post says the electorate is highly polarized. With the lack luster performance of the US economy, it seems strange that Romney is not doing better. On the other hand, Romney has been receiving tons of negative publicity, but it doesn’t seem to be affecting his ratings. Gerson suggests that the American public has lined up along ideological boundaries and as a result voters will not be easily swayed from their strongly held positions. In this environment, spending millions on TV commercials makes little difference.
Each and every voter has the ability to influence the election by turning out to vote. In the up and coming senatorial races and presidential race everyone counts, and your vote can make a difference. The senatorial and presidential elections as shown by polls are very tight. In this political climate each of us has a vote that matters.
Covering almost 1,550 potential voters in the Ohio state region, Gravis Marketing spent September 7th and 8th covering the recent impact of the Republican and Democrat conventions and how messaging coming out of the two events swayed people. The Gravis survey was designed similar to one run two weeks before in August, asking the same questions of respondents to measure and gauge any change between the two response sets. Gravis Marketing regularly works as a provider of non-partisan political polling for various campaign races as well as social issues affecting voting.
Unlike normal political polls which keep asking respondents different queries each time, the repeat question set used by Gravis Marketing focused on both the Senate race between Sherrod Brown and Josh Mandel, the general direction of the country, who people believe between the presidential candidates is the more charitable-minded of the two, the job performance of Governor Kasich, whether homosexual marriage should be allowed or not and more.
Not surprisingly, given the prime time media fanfare watching the event, candidate Mitt Romney’s prior surge right after the Republican convention gave up ground a week later as President Barack Obama and the Democrat convention gained the immediate attention. Obama’s poll numbers in the survey bumped up 4 percentage pointsto 47% versus the previous score of 43%. This polling turnover was a flip-flop from a week earlier where Mitt Romney had the lead with a slight 45%, up from 44% earlier. More changes are expected over the weeks to come.
The presidential results, which draw the most attention essentially show Ohio is a free-for-all between the two candidates. Neither is coming into the next week with a commanding lead, signalling that if the remainder of the election is the same, this presidency ballot is going to be a tight race to the finish. However, it also signals the final run, which could be highlighted by a debate. If that occurs, and one of the two candidates flubs on TV, it could be the October surprise that changes the race or clinches it completely.
WINTER SPRINGS, Florida—Ohio residents rewarded Romney with a small bump after he officially accepted the nomination at the Republican Conference; Florida polls remained constant. According to a new survey conducted by Gravis Marketing and Capitol Correspondent, the bump was negligible, but the broad shift among demographic groups in Ohio could mean good news for Romney.
Likely Voters Shift Toward Romney
Before the Republican Convention, Barack Obama was leading the polls across all demographic groups except for over 50 voters. Since the convention, his numbers have slipped and Romney is gaining ground in this tight race. Romney is leading in every group except for the youngest voters.
- Obama’s lead dropped from a six point spread to just three points among women voters.
- Romney held onto an eleven point lead among male voters
- Obama gained ground with 18-29 year-old voters—up by 13 points
- For 30-39 year old voters, Romney is ahead 51 percent to 38 percent
- Romney leads among 40-49 year-old voters with a 57 percent to 36 percent spread.
- Voters over fifty are statistically tied with Romney at 46 percent and Obama at 45 percent.
Brown V Mandel
Before the convention Brown held a narrow lead over Republican Josh Mandel in the Senate race. Post-convention the race has tightened to less than a one percent difference between the two contenders and put Mandel on top. While still within the 2.9 percent error ratio, the 3-point jump gives Mandel a slight advantage.
Independent voters are going to cast the deciding votes in November’s election. Obama could still take Ohio if Brown loses, but it is too close to call today.
For press inquiries, contact Doug Kaplan, Gravis Marketing, at 407-242-1870 or firstname.lastname@example.org. Polling was conducted using an automated call system to reach likely voters in Ohio by telephone. This poll has a 2.9% margin of error.